TL;DR
India's commercial vehicle sector is projected for robust growth in FY26-27, driven by increasing replacement demand and improved fleet operator profitability.
The Indian medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) sector is poised for significant growth, with projections indicating an 8% year-on-year increase in volumes for FY26 and a further 10% in FY27. A recent report by Nomura highlights that improving industry fundamentals, such as rising freight rates and a high average age of trucks, are expected to be key drivers of demand for vehicle replacements.
This positive outlook suggests that the industry is entering a new upcycle, with fleet operators experiencing enhanced profitability and cash flow, which in turn supports new vehicle purchases. The average age of trucks in India, currently around 10 years, further underscores the urgent need for modernization within fleets, contributing to a strong potential for sustained recovery and accelerated growth in the coming years.
