TL;DR
India's two-wheeler wholesale volumes are forecasted to grow by 6-9% in FY26, driven by GST cuts, increased urban consumption, and healthy rural incomes.
The Indian two-wheeler market is anticipated to experience a robust 6-9 percent year-on-year growth in wholesale dispatches for the fiscal year 2026 (FY26). This positive outlook is primarily attributed to several key factors, including stronger replacement demand following Goods and Services Tax (GST) cuts, a projected pickup in urban consumption, and healthy rural incomes bolstered by a normal monsoon season.
Wholesale volumes for two-wheelers saw a sharp increase of 19 percent year-on-year in November 2025, reaching 1.8 million units. This surge was supported by dealer inventory replenishments after sustained showroom footfall during and post the festive season. The combination of GST rate reductions and promotional offers by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) encouraged dealers to stock up, even as retail demand saw a slight moderation due to an earlier festive season.
While retail sales in November eased by 3.1 percent year-on-year, reflecting the shift of festive demand into October's record sales period, dealers continue to report steady customer interest. The positive sentiment surrounding GST reforms and strong demand from the ongoing wedding season are expected to sustain market momentum. Moreover, export volumes for two-wheelers continued their double-digit growth, rising 27.9 percent year-on-year, indicating a healthy global demand.
